A hotter climate is here to stay andEl Pasoans must prepare for more extreme heat.
A report published by the Texas climatologist in Octoberfound climate change in Texas will push temperatures higher, cause stronger storms and increaseflooding.
The state is already warming. Out of Texas' 254 counties, the report found El Paso has seen the second-highest increase in average temperature over the past 45 years.Between 1975 and 2020, average temperaturein El Paso County rose 0.83 degrees Fahrenheit.By 2036, the study predicts thenumber of 100-degree days in Texas will nearly double, compared to 2001-2020.
The report also found that eastern Texasis experiencing more extreme rainfall andbigger storm surges on the Gulf Coast. State climatologist and reportauthorJohn Nielsen-GammonofTexas A&M is an expert on climatetrendsacrossthegeographicallydiverse, expansive state.
"People can actually look around and see the future by looking at other places in the statewhere conditions are hotter and drier," said Nielsen-Gammon.
"For El Paso, that would correspond to moving down the Rio Grande toward Presidio, Texas, where temperatures tend to be higher and rainfall tends to be less," he said. "That's the future climate folks around El Paso can expect."
For context,from1981 to 2010, the average summer temperature in Presidio was87.3, making El Paso look cool by comparison at81.9.
El Paso officials are collecting data to plan for extreme heat. In 2020, thecity partnered with UTEP in a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrationcampaign to create a heat map, which provided the firstreliable data on heat across thecity.
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The Office of the TexasState Climatologist'sAssessment of Historic and Future Trends of Extreme Weather in Texasanalyzes historical data and climate models for temperature, precipitation, drought, and extreme storms.
The authors predict that the average annual Texas surface temperature in 2036 will be 3degrees warmerthan the 1950-1999 average and 1.8degrees warmer than the 1991-2020 average.
The study also found that nighttime temperatures are not going down as much as they used to.
"The days when you might get relief from the heat—those are going away," saidNielsen-Gammon.
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West Texas is experiencing more warming than the rest of the state. Crane County, in the Permian Basin, has the highestaverage temperature increase over the past 45 years, at 0.84 degrees. El Paso County is next and thenWard and Midland Counties, also in the Permian Basin.
"El Paso has experienced a large growth in population, both in El Paso proper and surrounding areas," said Nielsen-Gammon. "That can affect temperatures, causingtemperatures to be warmer, especially at night."
Extreme heat hits some El Paso communities harder than others
According to the Environmental Protection Agency(EPA),extreme heat is the leading weather-related killer in the United States.High temperatures cause heat stroke and increase the likelihood of deaths fromheart attacks, strokesand other forms of cardiovascular disease.
According to the EPA, those most vulnerable to extreme heat are the elderly, children and people who spend prolonged periods of time outdoors for their jobs. People with certaincardiovascular and respiratory illnesses are also more vulnerable to extreme heat.
Grace Ortiz ofAdult Protective Services in El Paso said they have given away fans tomore than 300 families that do not have adequate air conditioning each of the past two summers. They target seniors, children and people with health conditions that put them at risk for heatstroke.
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"2020 was exceptionally hot, this year wasn't as hot," said Ortiz. "But every summer there seems to be a great need."
As part of theEmergency Weather Task Force, Ortizalso connects people with resources to address why they are unable to keeptheir homes cool. This might mean connecting them with the AguaCares program so their water is not shut off.
"Sometimes having that swamp cooler in the summer, their water and electric goes super high," said Ortiz. "Those are some of the factors that mean they can't have that air conditioning running all the time."
Hot temperatures also increase demand on the electric grid. Blackouts can occur when the grid cannot supply electricity to all users.Omar Gallegos, El Paso Electric (EPE) Senior Director of Resource Planning and Management, said the utility monitors weather data and climate trends to prevent service interruptions.
"EPE’s Load Forecast, which is updated annually, incorporates the updated weather data and trends to more accurately estimate future electricity needs as a result of the current warming weather trends," he said in a statement.
Urban planningto preparefor extreme hot weather
The El Paso heat mapping project found that areas close to highways are hotter, while neighborhoods with parks and tree cover stay cooler.Ascarate Park, Upper Valley andthe Franklin Mountains outskirts were some of the areas where temperatures stayed relatively cooler. Meanwhile, many of the hottest areas clustered around the Interstate-10 corridor.
According toSustainability CoordinatorFernando Liaño Berjano, the city of El Paso is"exploring more sustainable types of development with more housing density, identifying priority corridors with active transportation modes at the forefront."
The city implemented a community heat perception survey in partnership withUTEP and theNorth American Development Bank. The results will be presented in November.
"This survey and the maps will be instrumental to design heat mitigation projects across El Paso,"Liaño Berjano said.
El Paso experiences theurban “heat island” effect, when pavement and buildings cover natural land, absorbing and retaining heat.The heat trapped in the built environment and pavement increases surfaces temperatures and prevents nighttime cooling.
Some of the common strategies to mitigate extreme heat in cities includetree planting and expanding green space. In El Paso's arid climate, using vegetation native to the Chihuahuan Desert or adapted to dry conditions is key to avoid increasing pressure on limited water supplies.
Other changes can be made to buildings and infrastructure. Los Angeles wasthe first major U.S. city to require homes to install cool roofing, which are roofing materials that reflect sunlight and absorb less heat.
"In the places where people live and spend time outdoors, you want to have some heat protection," said Nielsen-Gammon of Texas A&M. "That can be as simple as providing shade at bus stops."
Staff writer Martha Pskowski may be reached at mpskowski@elpasotimes.com and @psskow on Twitter.
