Money blog: 'Very big market event playing out' over US recession fear - impact on interest rates could be 'huge' (2024)

Top news
  • Global stock markets tumble amid fears of US recession
  • Explained:US recession could be 'huge' for global economy - and accelerate interest rate cuts in UK
  • New £190 switching offer from TSB - here's what you need to know
  • Aldi launches latest copycat product - it's much cheaper but what do nutritionists think?
Essential reads
  • Money Problem:'I cancelled a booking and they won't give me a refund because I didn't give 14 days' notice - what are my rights?'
  • Is equity release ever a good idea? Industry experts we spoke all seems to agree
  • Supermarkets and restaurants where kids can eat for free or cheap
  • Tax rises Labour could introduce in the autumn budget
  • What you can do if landlord won't fix mould - but it's risky
  • Best of the Money blog - an archive of features

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09:47:56

Explained: US recession could be 'huge' for global economy - and accelerate interest rate cuts in UK

We've had CNBC business presenter Karen Tso on air explaining the stock market turbulence we're seeing this morning - and she says the underlying factors could have a significant impact on global interest rates.

She described the stock market falls we reported on in our previous post as a "very big market event playing out".

It's been caused by fears the US could enter recession - "a complete U-turn to where we were just a number of weeks ago, when we were talking about the resilience of the US economy".

Some 114,000 jobs were created in July - significantly lower than the 175,000 new roles forecast by Wall Street.

Analysts at JPMorgan now think there is a50% probability of a US recession - which it says would result in a previously hawkish US Fed cutting interest rates by 50bp in September and again in November.

For context, the UK just had its first 25bp cut last week - with the Bank of England warning the path to lower rates will not be quick.

But Tso thinks events unfolding now could change the mindset of central banks around the world.

She told Sky News: "The consequences are huge because it's not just the Fed we're talking about here.

"If this is the case and we're talking about a change to monetary policy in the US, it could mean other central banks from the ECB to the Bank of England to beyond could be talking about more aggressive rate cuts."

She pointed out that finance ministers in Asia are taking to the airways to try to encourage calm.

"It's causing finance ministers to come out from Japan to Thailand to talk about just how resilient these markets are," she said.

"They are coordinating action, they are concerned, and they're broadcasting that to some of the market participants."

15:07:30

Dow down about 1,000 points

Back onto our headline story now, and as markets open in the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 1,100 points - or 2.7%.

The broader S&P 500 fell 180 points or 3.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 730 points or 4.3%.

The sharp drops seen by the three major indexes at the open are fading a bit.

The Dow is down about 1,000 points now, and the S&P 500 is down less than 2.9%.

The Nasdaq, which tracks some of the biggest tech firms, is still facing the worst losses but has pulled back and is currently down less than 3.8%.

13:45:01

Cadbury product experiencing 'temporary supply challenges'

A popular Cadbury's bar has been disappearing from supermarket shelves due to "temporary supply challenges".

Some of you might have noticed Darkmilk has been increasingly harder to come across...

A spokesperson for Mondelez International, which owns Cadbury, said the company was "working hard" to resolve the issue.

"Cadbury Darkmilk is a core part of our range, and remains popular with consumers," they said.

"We are aware of some temporary supply challenges, which we are working hard to resolve, but we can assure consumers that the product remains widely available across retailers in-store and online."

The 90g bars were reportedly last available in Ocado in late June and have been out of stock in Tesco, Sainsbury's and Asda since last month, according to The Grocer.

The Money team checked each site and found the bars were not available.

At Tesco, the Darkmilk ice creams were also out of stock - but you could purchase a pack of Darkmilk Chocolate Giant Buttons.

The buttons were also available at Ocado, Sainsbury's and Asda.

12:37:25

TikTok Shop to raise UK seller fees by 4% in September

TikTok Shop is raising its seller fees in the UK from 5% to 9% from 2 September.

Seller fees have not increased since the marketplace was created in 2021, but TikTok Shop says it will "continue to be among the most competitive in the market".

It is also introducing a "seller missions" programme, which will enable UK sellers to reduce their fees if they create a target number of TikTok live or shoppable videos.

There are also plans to launch a co-funded free shipping model on 4 September, which will enable sellers to offer free shipping by sharing part of the cost.

"We strive to provide the best possible experience for our sellers and buyers," said TikTok Shop UK head of operations Jan Wilk.

"This move enables us to invest further in building the marketplace of the future, including improved operations and services to help our sellers succeed.

"The sellers and brands that have the most success on TikTok Shop are those that engage with their community via live and shoppable videos, and we are confident our new initiatives to boost content creation will supercharge sales."

11:22:12

New £190 switching offer from TSB - here's what you need to know

TSB is offering switchers £100 in cash and at least £90 in incentives - but it's worth doing your research before making the move.

The incentive is triple cashback on its Spend and Save accounts worth up to £90, and the choice of a hotel stay, cinema tickets or a subscription to Now TV.

What is TSB like for customers?

Which? says: "TSB came joint 18th out of 21 providers in our annual survey of the best bank and bank accounts, with a customer score of 69%.

"It got average scores for its customer service, how it deals with complaints and its online and mobile banking. It received two stars for its branch and telephone banking service."

What's the small print?

As is usual, you have to use the Current Account Switch Service.

You'll then have to log in to the TSB app and make at least five payments using your debit card before 27 September.

You're ineligible if you've received TSB switching rewards since 1 October 2022 or you're intending to switch from another TSB account.

What other switching deals are on offer?

Barclays is offering £175 free cash, Apple TV subscriptions, Major League Soccer stream and access to a 5.12% saving account to new customers.

To get the offer, you can't have received switch cash from Barclays before.

You must also have two direct debits set up, pay in at least £800 by 30 August 2024, and join its Blue Rewards scheme, which comes with a £5 monthly fee.

The £175 is paid within 28 days of all the criteria being met.

Elsewhere, Co-opwill give you £100 plus £10 cashback for six months and an insurance package.

09:26:07

Fears of US recession send stock markets tumbling

By Daniel Binns, business reporter

Stock markets around the world have dropped sharply today amid fears the US economy may be heading for a recession.

The UK's FTSE 100 was down more than 2% after the markets opened, while the FTSE 250 fell more than 3%.

Otherexchangesin Europe, including in France, Portugal and Spain, fell by similar levels, while Germany's Dax was down 1%.

It follows much steeper drops in Asia earlier today - and further falls are expected in the US when markets open there later.

Japan's Nikkei 225 share index was down more than 12% at the close on Monday - its biggest fall since "Black Monday" in October 1987. The country's broader Topix index also fell by a similar level.

South Korea's Kospi index dropped more than 9%, while Taiwan's Taiex exchange slipped by 8.4%.

Markets in Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines also fell by around 2% and 3%.

The declines prompted the triggering of circuit breakers - in which the trading of stocks and derivatives is halted for 20 minutes - by some exchanges during the day.

It comes after US jobs market data on Friday came inmuch lower than expected for July, sending the country's stock markets tumbling.

Some 114,000 jobs were created during the month - significantly lower than the 175,000 new roles forecast by Wall Street.

The figure was the weakest since December last year and the second weakest since the start of theCOVID pandemicin the West in March 2020.

Robert Carnell, from financial services firm ING, said: "What we are looking at now is a situation where the market is viewing what's going on in the US macroeconomy as ticking the recession box."

Read the full story here...

07:01:10

Aldi launches latest copycat product - but is it what it seems?

Aldi is back with another copycat product, this time launching a dupe for a market leading kefir drink.

The budget supermarket has introduced the drinks under a brand called Beautiful Everyday, which bears a striking resemblance to the Biotful Gut Health's packaging.

However, their latest dupe is not all that it seems - as the Money team understands the drink has been created in collaboration with Biotful, which means the brand will benefit from any sales.

Which all begs the question - what's the difference, other than Aldi's being much, much cheaper? We have taken a look - and asked some nutritionists for their thoughts...

The branding of the two products is almost identical, with similar colours, logos and motifs.

Aldi's costs £1.99 for a 750ml bottle, compared with £3.50 for a litre of Biotiful's branded equivalent.

Nutritionist Gabriela Peaco*ckexplained that kefir contained probiotic cultures, which help digestion, liver detoxification, hormonal balance, and overall health.

She described it as like a "yoghurt on steroids" and recommended incorporating it into your daily routine.

We asked her to compare the two products based on their ingredients list.

Here's what she said:

"When comparing these two kefir brands, Biotiful and Aldi's own brand, it's important to note that their ingredient lists are very similar. However, the Aldi product uses very low-fat milk.

"I prefer Biotiful because it uses milk with proper fat, which is actually very healthy and important for us.

"So, if I had to choose between the two, I would opt for the Biotiful product for its nutritional benefits."

She also noted that kefir was a dairy product and may not be suitable for those following a vegan or dairy-free diet, or those who are lactose intolerant.

BeanieRobinson, a nutritionist from The Health Space, said there were no stark differences between the two products...

"The Aldi one looks like they have used low fat milk, so there are less calories in this Aldi drink," she said.

"It is unclear which particular bacteria strains they have used, as unlike the Biotiful one, it doesn't mention them.

"But the bottom line is that I would say if budget allows, always go for the organic full fat kefir to get the benefits of the fats and the organic milk."

She advised going for the unflavoured versions of the drinks, as the flavoured ones contain additives.

Dr Jibin He, who is a chartered food scientist at Teesside University, said the ingredients in the Biotful drink showed it was a live kefir culture - but suggested a homemade kefir might actually be the best option.

It includes, Bifidobacterium, Lactobacillus Acidophilus, Lactobacillus Casei and Lactobacillus Rhamnosus.

"A quick search reveals that these cultures can also have other probiotic bacteria besides the ones mentioned on the package," he said.

"There may be a difference between people who make kefir traditionally at home versus the commercial version of kefir, which could have different effects."

He explained that research on the benefits of kefir drinks was not conclusive, and for probiotics to have a genuine effect, there must be substantially more bacteria that can survive the journey through the stomach to reach the gut.

Aldi has long been associated with dupe products - you can see a few of its own versions of well-known brands in the photo below...

It has also partnered with brands in the past.

One of its most recent partnerships was with BrewDog, with the two companies working together in 2020 to create the "Anti Establishment IPA".

06:39:52

'I cancelled a booking and they won't give me a refund because I didn't give 14 days' notice - what are my rights?'

Every Monday we get an expert to answer your Money Problems or consumer disputes. Find out how to submit yours at the bottom of this post. Today's question is...

I booked online for my son to attend a trampoline session. He didn't want to go and I cancelled a day before the event, in the same week that I booked. They won't give me a refund because I didn't give 14 days' notice. Which is impossible - I booked and cancelled in the same week.

Laley

We asked Money blog regular expert Scott Dixon, from The Complaints Resolver, to take a look at this one.

The law

Scott outlines some legislation that applies in this case:

  • S62 Consumer Rights Act 2015has a requirement for contract terms and notices to be fair. An unfair term of a contract is not binding on the consumer. Any contract terms which unfairly tilt the balance in favour of the trader against the consumer is void. Key terms of a contract must be bold, fair, transparent and balanced - they cannot be buried in the small print of T&Cs.
  • The Consumer Protection from Unfair Trading Regulations 2008protects consumers from unfair or misleading trading practices and bans acts and omissions that entice consumers into making a decision they would otherwise not have made.

The consumer dispute experts says: "I take the view that you were misled into making a transactional decision you would not have otherwise made."

What can you do?

Scott says: "You can raise a chargeback with your bank or credit card provider within 120 days of your payment to get a refund. You need to cite 'breach of contract' under the Consumer Rights Act 2015 to enact a chargeback.

"Stress that it was impossible to give 14 days' notice to cancel as the retailer accepted your booking days before you were due to go.

"This constitutes an unfair term of a consumer contract that is not binding on the consumer and voids the contract."

Your bank or credit card provider can reverse the payment and give the retailer an opportunity to present their case.

"Retailers don't like dealing with chargebacks as they are problematic and costly to resolve," Scott says.

Next steps

As a last resort you can take your case to the Small Claims Court in England and Wales - or use the respective legal routes in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Scott says: "Before you file a claim, send screenshots of the court papers to the company setting your case out and demanding a refund within seven days."

This usually prompts a resolution before you have to actually lodge the claim, Scott says.

"I would also report this firm to Trading Standards," says Scott.

This feature is not intended as financial advice - the aim is to give an overview of the things you should think about. Submit your dilemma or consumer dispute via:

  • The form above - you need to leave a phone number or email address so we can contact you for further details;
  • Email news@skynews.com with the subject line "Money blog";
  • WhatsApp us here.

06:30:31

Morrisons revamping More loyalty scheme amid turnaround effort

Morrisons is hoping to increase the number of transactions involving its free loyalty scheme to 70% as it fights to regain its place in the "big four".

The supermarket, which was first overtaken into fourth spot for market share by discount rival Aldi in 2022, has loyalty sales of around 50%.

According to The Grocer, chief executive Rami Baitiéh has told suppliers about the loyalty expansion, and has said he wants it to move from being a "shield" to a "sword" against competitors.

There will be more member-only offers and additional "hyper-personalised" offers following the introducing of My Points Boosters in April. The scheme allowed customers to choose 10 brands that give them extra points.

06:28:05

Big expansion of Tesco's marketplace

Tesco's version of Amazon, which they're keen not to be labelled their version of Amazon, has more than doubled the number of products available.

Regular readers may remember we reported on this back in June, when CEO Ken Murphy said the supermarket giant was not trying to replicate Amazon and be "all things to all people".

Since then, when 9,000 products were available, the marketplace for third-party sellers has expanded to offer 20,000 products.

They cover categories such as garden, DIY, homeware, toys, sports, baby, beauty and petcare.

Money blog: 'Very big market event playing out' over US recession fear - impact on interest rates could be 'huge' (2024)

FAQs

What will happen to interest rates in a recession? ›

Interest rates usually fall early in a recession and then rise later as the economy recovers. This means that the adjustable rate for a loan taken out during a recession is likely to rise once the downturn ends. The fixed-rate loan at recession pricing could be a better deal in the long run.

What happens to interest rates when the stock market crashes? ›

If stock prices decline, it may indicate investors are seeking to reduce portfolio risk and putting more money to work in bonds. This reflects an increase in demand for bonds, which typically allows issuers to offer debt at lower interest rates.

Will interest rates go down in 2024? ›

Forecasters expect rates to land closer to mid-6 percent by the end of 2024, according to Bankrate's August mortgage rate outlook.

Does the Fed lower interest rates in a recession? ›

Rate cuts are certainly related to recessions, but that doesn't mean cutting rates will cause one. The Fed cuts rates in order to stimulate the economy. Lower interest rates mean money is easier to borrow and flows more freely in the economy. That's antithetical to what a recession is.

Is it better to have cash or property in a recession? ›

Cash: Offers liquidity, allowing you to cover expenses or seize investment opportunities. Property: Can provide rental income and potential long-term appreciation, but selling might be difficult during an economic downturn.

What should you not do in a recession? ›

Don't: Take On High-Interest Debt

It's best to avoid racking up high-interest debt during a recession. In fact, the smart move is to slash high-interest debt so you've got more cash on hand. Chances are your highest-interest debt is credit card debt.

Should I buy a house when the market crashes? ›

This decreased demand means less competition for homes on the market, which in turn means sellers who are more open to lowering their prices. So buying during a recession, if you are financially able to, may get you a better deal.

Where to put money before market crash? ›

If you are a short-term investor, bank CDs and Treasury securities are a good bet. If you are investing for a longer time period, fixed or indexed annuities or even indexed universal life insurance products can provide better returns than Treasury bonds.

What happens to my savings if the stock market crashes? ›

While it appears that you're losing money during a market crash, in reality, it's just your stocks losing value. For example, say you buy 10 shares of a stock priced at $100 per share, so your total account balance is $1,000. If that stock price drops to $80 per share, those shares are now only worth $800.

How high could interest rates go in 2025? ›

Yet rates are likely to end the year around 6.4%, and remain above 6% throughout most of 2025, even as the Fed prepares to cut interest rates for the first time in four years, according to Lisa Sturtevant, Bright MLS chief economist.

What is the interest prediction for 2024? ›

Mortgage interest rates are likely to keep going down in 2024. The average two-year fixed-rate deal has dropped to 5.79%, down from 5.9% the week before. The average five-year fixed-rate deal has also dropped from 5.49% to 5.39%.

What are the interest rates today? ›

Today's Mortgage Interest Rates by Term
LOAN TERMINTEREST RATEAPR
30-Year Fixed6.93%6.95%
15-Year Fixed6.19%6.22%
30-Year Jumbo6.99%7.02%

Who benefits from high interest rates? ›

With profit margins that actually expand as rates climb, entities like banks, insurance companies, brokerage firms, and money managers generally benefit from higher interest rates. Central bank monetary policies and the Fed's reserver ratio requirements also impact banking sector performance.

What happens to your money in the bank during a recession? ›

Your money is safe in a bank, even during an economic decline like a recession. Up to $250,000 per depositor, per account ownership category, is protected by the FDIC or NCUA at a federally insured financial institution.

Does raising interest rates help recession? ›

Do Interest Rates Rise or Fall in a Recession? Interest rates usually fall during a recession. Historically, the economy typically grows until interest rates are hiked to cool down price inflation and the soaring cost of living. Often, this results in a recession and a return to low interest rates to stimulate growth.

Should I take my money out of the bank before a recession? ›

Your money is safe in a bank, even during an economic decline like a recession. Up to $250,000 per depositor, per account ownership category, is protected by the FDIC or NCUA at a federally insured financial institution.

Do things get cheaper in a recession? ›

While the prices of individual items may behave unpredictably due to unexpected economic factors, it is true that a recession might cause the prices of some items to fall. Because a recession means people usually have less disposable income, the demand for many items decreases, causing them to get cheaper.

What were the interest rates during the recession in 2008? ›

The Federal Reserve was also forced to take unprecedented monetary policy measures during the Great Recession to preserve the financial system. From September 2007 to December 2008, the Fed implemented 10 interest rate cuts, bringing the fed funds rate down from 5.25% to essentially zero.

What happens to my mortgage if the economy collapses? ›

What Happens To Your Mortgage Rates & Payments? If you have a fixed-rate mortgage , then your monthly payments will remain the same, which can be beneficial in a high-inflation environment. However, if you have an adjustable-rate mortgage, expect your payments to increase.

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