How the Red Wings' prospect pipeline shapes Detroit's draft needs, outlook (2024)

The Red Wings are going to have to wait longer than they’re used to when they make their first pick of the 2024 NHL Draft next month.

After officially landing the 15th pick in the draft via the NHL Draft Lottery, Detroit’s first pick is slated to be its latest since 2016 (when they traded back from No. 16 to No. 20). And the Red Wings do have plenty to show for their seven years picking within the top 10: earlier this season, The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler ranked Detroit as the league’s No. 2 prospect pool.

This year’s No. 15 pick is no less crucial, coming at a significant moment in the team’s rebuild. Detroit has started to improve in the standings, threatening a playoff berth this season, and hence the later spot in the draft order. But general manager Steve Yzerman and his staff still have work ahead of them to make the Red Wings a contender, and the NHL team’s on-ice improvement only increases the degree of difficulty in making the right choice.

So far, as that lofty prospect ranking would attest, their first-round track record has been strong. In the process, the front office has shown what attributes it seems to covet, with high-level competitiveness and hockey sense serving as through-lines between their selections.

But the collection of prospects Detroit has amassed doesn’t just tell us what the Red Wings value. It can also show us what they still need. And while you can bet the Red Wings will go into the draft looking for — and talking about — the proverbial “best player available,” their current prospect pipeline will somewhat shape their thinking.

So, what does Detroit have at each major position, and what could it mean for the 15th pick? Let’s explore.

Center

This position group has transformed more than any other in the organization over the last two years. Detroit has used consecutive top-10 picks on centers Marco Kasper and Nate Danielson, and both look like they could challenge for NHL roster spots as soon as this fall.

There are rhymes in their respective games — both are strong two-way forwards with good size and skating — but Danielson has displayed more natural offense to this point, driven by his speed, hands and hockey sense.

The big question coming into this season was whether Danielson or Kasper could project as a legitimate No. 2 center for the future. That outcome is still in play for both (Kasper just turned 20 in April and Danielson is just 19), but looks particularly within reach for Danielson, after a roaring second half with WHL Portland that led into a strong playoff run.

So, does that mean Detroit should stay away from the position this time around? Not necessarily, though it does lessen the urgency to seek out the position. And that’s good because, by pick 15, the center options look likely to thin out.

The top name with a chance to make it to the Red Wings is Konsta Helenius, the Finnish center who put up a strong draft year in Liiga before a quieter finish in international play. Helenius would have to be a consideration for Detroit if he lasts until 15, considering his success against men in a top European league. His 36 points in 51 games are up there with some of Liiga’s top all-time U18 seasons. But if the Red Wings have reservations about him stemming from his size at 5-foot-11 or his performance at U18 Worlds, they can afford to be picky at this position.

Other options down the middle likely to be available include USHL pivot Michael Hage and OHL centers Jett Luchanko and Cole Beaudoin. Hage’s speed and skill combination and Luchanko’s up-tempo, complete profile make those two especially notable in that conversation.

For the first time in a long time, the Red Wings are in a good spot at the center position entering the draft, which is certainly a welcome development. But at one of the most important positions on the ice, Detroit also doesn’t need to avoid a prospect it loves just because he plays down the middle.

If a top center prospect such as Cayden Lindstrom or Berkly Catton were to start slipping to around 10 or later, there would even be a case for the Red Wings to try and move up, to secure a potentially dynamic piece.

Winger

If I were a betting man, this is where I’d guess the Red Wings use the 15th pick, for two reasons.

First, it’s shaping up to be the strongest position group in the teens, with an especially strong defense class and a few exciting centers likely to dominate the top 10. There should be at least three top wingers gone fairly early too, with spring riser Beckett Sennecke probably moving just out of Detroit’s reach after a stellar OHL playoff run. But there are still several intriguing wingers with good chances to be around at pick 15, and that’s good news for the Red Wings because it stands out as the weakest position in the farm system.

Detroit does have a couple of fairly young wingers already playing in its NHL top six, 22-year-old Lucas Raymond and 26-year-old Alex DeBrincat. Both are big pieces of the Red Wings’ core, although it’s worth noting DeBrincat’s contract only runs through 2027. But in terms of the prospect pipeline, there are few (if any) sure things to join them in a long-term top nine, let alone the top six.

The best bet is 22-year-old Carter Mazur, who had a good first professional season in Grand Rapids and is off to a strong start in the AHL playoffs with five points in his first five games. Mazur isn’t massive, 6-1, 178 pounds, but he plays a gritty game with an edge and projects into a well-rounded winger at the next level. He can score around the net or with his shot, and he should be able to complement skilled linemates. He could challenge for NHL time as soon as next season.

Also expected to contend for the NHL roster next season is Jonatan Berggren, the soon-to-be 24-year-old who has seen time in Detroit in each of the last two seasons. He’s a skilled, creative playmaker, and while his game is tilted toward the offensive end, he has produced when called upon.

Berggren is thought of as a potential trade candidate, however, because of sparse usage this season. And that speaks to an important point about the Red Wings’ roster makeup — for the draft, trade, and free agent considerations. While Detroit can certainly benefit from more skill in their top six, the profile of that skill still matters here.

Raymond and DeBrincat are already smaller, offensively-driven wingers, and while Raymond in particular should continue to add more two-way elements to his game, the Red Wings need to be conscious of what kind of supporting players they add to surround their top-scoring wingers. Ideally, they would find a winger with skill and size, and hard elements to their game to help win pucks down low and score in the most hotly-contested areas of the ice. That’s not to say a pure grinder, mind you — as sometimes players with heaviness and jam in their game get unfairly reduced to those elements in public discourse — but rather a player who can bring offense without needing to always rely on others to get them the puck, or on pure dangling ability once they have it.

There are a few players who stand out to that effect likely be available, namely Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (Mora IK), Igor Chernyshov (Dynamo Moscow), Liam Greentree (Windsor) and Trevor Connelly (Tri-City), though each comes with varying degrees of questions.

There is also a chance that U.S. National Team Development Program sniper Cole Eiserman could be available, which would present an interesting test case for this exact topic. Eiserman set the all-time U.S. NTDP record for goals in his two years in the program, so he can certainly score. He could still be available, though, due to how many other elements he can consistently bring to the game. His track record suggests the potential for major offensive production, and at 6 feet, he’s not too small, but there’s some risk if he turns out to be relatively one-dimensional as a pro. If Detroit feels confident that Eiserman is more than just a shooter, he could be an interesting potential target.

As the Red Wings saw down the stretch this season, there is a difference between “skill” and “hard skill” when it comes to creating offense. And while Detroit has done well to add more of those harder elements in the last few drafts, they are by no means maxed out in that department — especially on the wing.

Defense

Much of the conversation around the Red Wings’ pick is at forward, and for understandable reasons. Since Yzerman was introduced as general manager in 2019, Detroit has used three first-round picks on defensem*n and six second-rounders. And the blue line is shaping up to be a position of depth in the years to come, once those prospects mature.

Moritz Seider is already the team’s workhorse No. 1 defenseman, and Simon Edvinsson looks on track to be a major minute-eater in his own right very soon — expect him to be a full-time NHLer next season. Their AHL blue line is packed full of young defensem*n moving closer to NHL readiness, and that’s to say nothing of 2023 first-round pick Axel Sandin-Pellikka, who is progressing well in Sweden as an offensively-minded power-play type.

With that said, I wouldn’t completely rule out Detroit going ‘D’ next month, even if I think forward is more likely. While the Red Wings have indeed amassed good depth on defense, it’s still not clear if any of those second-round defensem*n will be able to break through as legitimate top-four pieces. And while the cream of this defense crop will go early (could there be six ‘D’ in the top 10?) there are a couple more potential top-four blueliners of note in Adam Jiricek (Czechia) and Stian Solberg (Norway) who could be picked in the teens.

Corey Pronman has written about the parallels between Solberg as a physical, shutdown defender playing in an under-scouted pro league — and Seider when Detroit drafted the German workhorse at sixth overall, although Pronman doesn’t feel Solberg is the same caliber of prospect as Seider. Still, would it be that shocking to see the Red Wings go for another big, mobile defenseman with this pick? Doing so would round out their projected future top four and surround Sandin-Pellikka with an ideal group of two-way defenders.

Again, I don’t think another first-round defense pick is the likely outcome this time around. But it’s something to keep in mind.

Goalie

There is not a clear-cut first-round goalie prospect in 2024, and that suits the Red Wings just fine, with prospects Sebastian Cossa (2021 first-round pick) and Trey Augustine (2023 second round) trending nicely toward helping Detroit in the coming years.

Both had strong seasons in 2023-24, and Cossa is currently leading AHL Grand Rapids through a playoff run while Augustine is with Team USA at the men’s world championships. They look like Detroit’s future in net, though it remains to be seen who will pull ahead in that internal competition, and how long it will take them to arrive.

Still, as the draft wears on, it won’t be a surprise if Detroit drafts another goalie just to have another iron in the fire and to keep the pipeline stocked. Just don’t expect it to be a serious consideration at No. 15.

(Top photo of Marco Kasper: Frank Jansky / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Max Bultman is a staff writer for The Athletic covering the Detroit Red Wings. He has also written for the Sporting News, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and South Florida Sun-Sentinel. Max is a graduate of the University of Michigan, where he covered Michigan football and men's basketball. Follow Max on Twitter @m_bultman